The metaverse will be AR not VR-powered

Science fiction has often presented us with glimpses of potential future society, and few modern films have done this more effectively than Ready Player One.

In this compelling sci-fi epic, people replace their dismal real-world lives with a gaudy digital universe where their avatar alter egos can do almost anything it’s possible to imagine.

From interacting with key scenes in The Shining through to holographic replays of other people’s lives, all things are possible when your senses are fully immersed in virtual reality.

Exploring this seductively garish metaverse requires VR staples like headsets, free-moving floor mats and haptic body suits.

Yet in truth, the fledgling metaverse is likely to be far more prosaic when it eventually establishes itself in the mainstream.

Instead of VR body suits, the metaverse is likely to involve augmented reality projections via equipment resembling bulky wraparound sunglasses.

Here’s why.

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Speculating about the metaverse’s future prospects is rather like people who speculated about the internet’s prospects in the early 1990s.

Some will sneer and predict inglorious failure, while the more foresighted will recognise the potential benefits on offer.

Yet today, the metaverse is full of vertigo-inducing fairground ride simulations and charlatans selling worthless ‘real estate’.

It was widely acknowledged at this year’s CES show in Las Vegas that public scepticism is inevitable, since the metaverse has yet to demonstrate compelling use cases.

For avid gamers, its future value lies in the prospect of alternate realities – Second Life meets Ready Player One. Facebook owner Meta is losing $10 billion a year investing in this utopia.

Yet the prospect of total immersion in a virtual world has significant drawbacks, compared to the prospect of augmented overlays on top of what we can actually see around us.

For one thing, there’s motion sickness. Many people find it deeply uncomfortable standing still while supposedly floating through space, or sailing down rapids.

The human body was never designed to cope with such sensory conflict, often resulting in nausea, vertigo and a loss of balance (in the real world).

Secondly, the technology required to enter a virtual world is impractical and costly. An HTC consumer headset at CES was priced at £1,300.

Many homes don’t have space for four-way treadmills, while bulky headsets are often deeply uncomfortable to wear and haptic body suits can be hard to don and disrobe from.

Most importantly, there’s currently little evidence that today’s glitchy and unintuitive VR worlds are enjoyable, or have lasting appeal beyond their novelty factor.

VR headset sales as a whole fell two per cent last year according to research from NDP Group, despite gimmicks like aroma cartridges which pair with gaming system headsets.

Even Meta’s flagship Quest Pro headset suffers from high cost and short battery life, while the platform’s voracious data harvesting in an age of growing privacy concerns is worrying.

So why will AR succeed instead?

Put simply, technological overlays on top of what we can already see are a far easier sell, which is why pro AR headsets like Microsoft’s HoloLens2 and Magic Leap 2 are so exciting.

Imagine surgeons seeing MRI scans superimposed over a patient’s body in an operating theatre, or a mechanic viewing an instruction manual while repairing a broken-down vehicle.

Suddenly, there’s no cognitive dissonance. You see the world as it is, moving around freely while live translation services display subtitles as someone speaks in a foreign language.

Sales and marketing could drive AR adoption, with glasses displaying product data when you look at an item in a shop, or ingredients and allergy info flashing up as you peruse a restaurant menu.

You could stand in your living room and superimpose a potential new piece of furniture to determine how its size/style/colour might work in this room.

This is the kind of compelling yet straightforward functionality that might persuade people to invest in the hardware, software and subscriptions needed to access metaverse services.

Without a critical mass of consumer adoption being driven by compelling use cases, the metaverse simply won’t take off. And AR will be the gateway to this critical mass being achieved.

So why will AR succeed instead?

Put simply, technological overlays on top of what we can already see are a far easier sell, which is why pro AR headsets like Microsoft’s HoloLens2 and Magic Leap 2 are so exciting.

Imagine surgeons seeing MRI scans superimposed over a patient’s body in an operating theatre, or a mechanic viewing an instruction manual while repairing a broken-down vehicle.

Suddenly, there’s no cognitive dissonance. You see the world as it is, moving around freely while live translation services display subtitles as someone speaks in a foreign language.

Sales and marketing could drive AR adoption, with glasses displaying product data when you look at an item in a shop, or ingredients and allergy info flashing up as you peruse a restaurant menu.

You could stand in your living room and superimpose a potential new piece of furniture to determine how its size/style/colour might work in this room.

This is the kind of compelling yet straightforward functionality that might persuade people to invest in the hardware, software and subscriptions needed to access metaverse services.

Without a critical mass of consumer adoption being driven by compelling use cases, the metaverse simply won’t take off. And AR will be the gateway to this critical mass being achieved.