Streaming services set to kill terrestrial TV within a decade
As streaming services tighten their grip on the nation’s viewing habits, terrestrial TV seems more endangered than ever.
Compared to the breakneck pace of computing advances and broadband speed upgrades, home entertainment has been surprisingly slow to evolve.
Radio was the dominant broadcast medium until the 1950s, at which point black and white televisions established a dominance unthreatened until colour TV arrived in the 1970s.
Sky and cable rivals like Telewest (latterly Virgin Media) disrupted the market in the 1990s with multi-channel services, but it was the 2010s before streaming services heralded the next major shift.
Today, that shift seems irreversible, as Netflix and YouTube gradually erode the once vice-like grip terrestrial channels held over the nation.
Indeed, it’s increasingly easy to envisage a world without aerials and coax leads, electronic programme guides and Now & Next captions.
You do you(tube)
A few weeks ago, telecommunications industry regulator Ofcom published its annual Media Nations report, covering national consumption of TV, radio, video and audio services.
Running to almost a hundred pages, this weighty tome suggests the amount of content being consumed nationwide has now plateaued at around four and a half hours per person per day.
What is notable is the decline in broadcast TV viewing. Ofcom recorded a four per cent drop in audience numbers compared to the previous year.
Over-75s were the only age group to buck this trend, which is perhaps unsurprising as they’re the least likely to be voracious or confident consumers of internet-hosted video.
BBC stations experienced less drop-off than their terrestrial TV counterparts, and increasing iPlayer viewing times actually resulted in a fractional increase in BBC content consumption.
Nor can we blame the quality of content – 68 per cent of Ofcom survey respondents said they were satisfied with terrestrial broadcasters, which is a comparable percentage to previous years.
The percentage of UK households with a streaming video on demand (SVoD) subscription remains the same as in 2021, at 68 per cent.
However, those subscribers are increasingly watching a higher proportion of streaming content compared to traditional TV.
Will terrestrial services be turned off?
Without wishing to descend into Tomorrow’s World-style speculation, there does appear to be an inevitability to the eventual closure of terrestrial TV services.
Analogue broadcasts have already ended, and concepts like Sky Glass showcase a future where mainstream and niche channels alike are all beamed into our homes via the internet.
The fact you can now watch every terrestrial channel online is also emblematic of a shift away from signals being beamed to roof-mounted aerials.
Across the most recent twelve-month period, YouTube consumption rose by 13 per cent, while more children watch Netflix content than BBC kids programming.
Watching SVoD services is the most popular media pastime – even surpassing social media – with 87 per cent of 15-24-year-olds consuming video content in this way.
Almost 60 per cent of UK households have a Netflix subscription, 46 per cent subscribe to Amazon Prime Video and a quarter have a Disney+ subscription.
The fact these platforms are all American raises concerns about the dilution of our national culture; only six per cent of households currently subscribe to the Sky-based NOW TV.
Is there a schedule for turning off terrestrial TV?
The UK Government recently published a report which claimed many viewers were unconcerned about the switch to internet broadcasting, though admittedly it polled just 100 people.
Terrestrial provision is currently secured in statute until 2034, with a consultation ongoing about its future thereafter.
Perhaps surprisingly, the BBC and ITV are actively campaigning in favour of the 2034 switch-off, despite fears that vulnerable audiences might be left behind.
Their argument is that terrestrial signals cost a lot of money to broadcast, while audience numbers are declining, making this service increasingly less cost-effective every year.
Yet major concerns remain around digital exclusion among older consumers, the rising cost of SVoD services at a time of economic hardship, and American platform ownership.
Among many other issues in its in-tray, the Government is now evaluating how to manage the transition to streaming-only broadcasting.
For now, channels 1 to 5 remain freely available irrespective of whether you have an ITVX account or watch 4oD over the internet.
